I just wanted to repost this for anybody who missed it on the old blog.
So everybody is doing their look-back posts, and trying to figure out what was the most important things that happened. I could make some guesses about what was the most important but forget that. The Future is Now! Here we go.
(http://blogs.phred.org/blogs/alex_wetmore/default.aspx)
1. Steel Is Real - We’ve certainly seen the rebirth of the Cro-Mo steel frame over the last then years. I predict that steel will come back as the de-facto frame material in the next decade, partly because it’s still fairly cheap compared to carbon and ti, and partly because it’s so easy for somebody to set up shop and jump in to custom frame building. That’s to Surly for that one.
(http://www.flickr.com/photos/antbikemike/)
2. Internal Gear Hub - Look at the forums and you can see what I mean. The Rohloff is one of the sexiest custom feature for cost is no object bikes. More development such as the return of Sturmey Archer and the Shimano Alphine hub are bringing high quality hubs to everyday users. You get the aesthetic and simplicity of single speed without any of the drawbacks.
(http://www.speedgoat.com/images/blog/jones-diamond-steel-fork.jpg)
3. Bigger Tires - Perhaps one of the most overlooked technologies in cycling. Tires have come so far in the last ten years. Tires are now lighter, stronger and cheaper (maybe). Also new tire sizes are a much more believable reality because of the availability of good tires. The most obvious example is the 29er standard. I remember when many people, even in the bike industry were saying that 29ers were a nonsense technology, but now you would be hard-pressed to find a major manufacturer that doesn’t have at least on 29er in their lineup. Then 650b came along as people hacked their old road bikes. I saw the same thing a couple years earlier with 24” wheels on mountain-bikes. If you make you’re rim smaller you can fit more air in between your chain-stays. Now at the end of the decade we are starting to see the use of super wide tires, first with the Jeff Jones steel bike, an now with the realization of the Pugsley format.
(http://granfons.blogspot.com/2008_12_01_archive.html)
4. Handlebars - Look at Mtbr forums or Fixed Gear Gallery. Crazy handlebars were the thing. First we had track-bike with all NJS components. Then people wanted brake levers so we tried different solutions like cross levers, stokers on road bars, the Paul E-Lever, and various mountain-bike and Bmx solutions. Once people realized what was possible when you don’t have shifters getting in the way the rules just disappeared. Top players were On One and Soma Fab, but we also saw the rebirth of Nitto and other smaller players such as Jeff Jones coming up with more creative alternatives. Haro really brought Alt Bars into the “mainstream” with the Mary 29er model. I think this evolved differently on road and off road. While track bikes went narrower, with the Brooklyn Machine Works April fools prank, Mountain Bikes went the opposite direction. People have come to realize that wider bars give you much better handling off-road. Downhill bikes now have bars far wider than the riders shoulders. I think we will see much more exploration in the realm of what actually works best for ergonomics.
(http://www.cetmacargo.com/)
5. Bags and Racks - First we had messenger bags. Timbuk 2 was the ultimate urban fashion statement. Then Chrome upped the stakes with their progressive straps and buckles. Then, arguably, they killed them off. Messenger backpacks became to best solution as people realized the benefits of a balanced load. The popularity of Brooks saddles was a big factor in the explosion of Larger saddle bags. Companies such as Rivendell and Velo Orange gave people more and better options and essentially tore the market wide open for smaller companies making quality bicycle luggage. Then front load bicyles became the next big thing, with companies such as Kogswell and Cetma making the most buzz. Oddly, Panniers never achieved the fashionable status of the messenger bags, however we have certainly seen more options such as the Ortlieb and Timbuk 2 options become more widely available.
(http://www.bikesdirect.com/products/windsor/timeline.htm)
6. Cheap Good Bikes Online - This is something I have been really excited about ever since I began working in the bike world. Arguably this was first a reaction to traditional brick and mortar bike shops not carrying high quality Bmx components. Companies like Dans Comp started selling the things that bike shops couldn’t justify selling and through the internet and magazine advertisement took over the BMX market. They discovered it makes sense to capture a niche market and sell everything that you could possibly need in one place for less of a markup. They even went so far as to purchase the budget brand Poverty bikes, effectively cutting out the retail middle man. Other companies did this with mainstream bikes too. Shops like Performance and Nashbar produced their own bike lines and components. But for the most part they were not as high quality as the bikes you could get from a real shop. Single speeding changed all that. Suddenly their was a huge market for obscure custom components such as freewheel hubs and track cranks. Shops just didn’t see the profit margin for stocking such things. Some people capitalized on the trend, opening boutique stores in the larger urban centers, but for most people the internet was the only option. Many of the mainstream web retailers did a decent job of selling products from distributor owned companies Surly and Soma. But still companies like Harris Cyclery were a batter option due to the knowledge and approachability of people like Sheldon Brown. In many ways it was a huge boon for smaller shops with the forethought to specialize in those niche markets. Shops like Ben’s Cycles in Milwaukee began to reach out to their customers in a more intimate way, using the power of the internet. The one piece that these small shops were unable to capture was the economy of scale. That is where Bikes Direct comes in. By using familiar brand names and Taiwanese manufacturing they were able to launch a major bike brand completely independent of traditional retain channels. I am excited to see what they can do as they streamline their design and manufacturing process, using tools like the bike forums to figure out what new products cyclists need and bring them to market quicker and more cheaply than ever before.
(http://www.khsbicycles.com/09_green_09.htm)
7. Transportation Cycles - Dutch bikes man. It’s all the rage, from New York to Seattle. What can bikes that are heavy and old fashioned looking do for cycling? They remove the stigma that cycling must be a competitive sport, only accessible to uber athletes and hardcore bike messengers. Grant peterson has been trying to do this for years, ever since he first worked for Jitensha Studios in Berkley. The problem is that American Culture no longer has a precedent for utility cycling. So we do like we have always done, Import. European cities like amsterdam and Copenhagen have a long relationship with practical bikes. They have distilled and perfected it to the same level that the Italians and Japanese have perfected racing bicycles. I predict that using the power of Asian manufacturing, American brands will flood the market with well designed, affordable city bikes, ushering in a new era where cycling is a mundane and accessible means of transportation.
(http://gofargo.blogspot.com/)
8. Bike Camping - Long a part of the extended bicycle tour, more and more people are discovering the fun and ease of bicycle camping. Due to the greater availability of affordable touring and cyclocross bikes, it is now easier for everyday cyclists to pick up and ride to a campsite without making huge sacrifices in comfort or safety. As cargo trailers and luggage options improve, more and more people will begin to discover the kinds of places that are easily accessible by bike. Fat tire touring and randonee bikes are slowly expanding the kids of terrain that people feel comfortable tackling on un-supended bicycles. The fire roads of the western states will soon become the next great cycling frontier.
(http://forums.mtbr.com/member.php?u=278897)
9. Snowbikes - Quality Bicycle Products has done a really phenomenal job over the last decade. They have predicted, and possibly even dictated almost every trend that has come about through the alt bike community. One might say that the Pugsley was merely a marketing ploy. A shot in the dark world of adventure touring. But I disagree. I think it was a calculated move. I think that our friends in the midwest realized that to make cycling a year round activity they would need a huge leap forward in the way we think about bike design. And so, like many of the crazes that have come about, they went looking for the most extreme form of winter riding. Any they found it in alaska. I think people are only just starting to realize the full potential of the fat tire design. It is not limited merely to beaches and snowmobile tracks. Fat tire bikes can be built lighter and can go more places than a Downhill bike, and still have the same comfort and performance of an 8 inch travel bike. Sure, they wont go as fast, or fly as high, but for most people that’s not the point. The Pugsly is truly the fist go anywhere, do anything bike. I think that we will see many of the innovations that snow-bikes have brought about trickling slowly into the rest of the cycling world.
(http://www.paulcomp.com/mtthumbie.html)
10. Shifters - Really!? Shifters!? Isn’t this the opposite of what cycling is about now? It’s single speeds and fixed gears and rigid bikes, right? Well no, I don’t think so. Single speed riding is awesome. It forces you to push your boundaries and rethink what kind of technology is important on a bike. But ultimately it’s a niche market. For most people, if you live in an area with even the remotest hint of an incline, it is impossible to ignore the benefit afforded by changing your gear ratio. People gravitate to single speeding because it represents a rejection of the snake-oil technology that many of the “advancements” that the cycling industry has given us. That said, we cannot ignore the limitations that single speed bikes present us with. We will start to ask ourselves, and our bicycle makers, is STI really the best form of gear changers we can create? Are there no other options. What about gripshift? What about Bar-cons? What about down-tube shifters? Thumbies? What other choices can you give us? I believe that shifter choices are the single greatest setback that has limited the adoption of gear hubs. More and more the weight is not an issue due to the ever improving metals and manufacturing processes. So when will we start to see more bikes fitted with this equipment? As soon as the industry starts to give us the option to use them with different kinds of handlebars and riding positions. We have gotten our first glimpse of this with the announcement of the Sturmey Archer bar-con shifter option. Certainly there is a market for it. J-Tek now makes options for Alphine and Rohloff hubs. When will we see the industry respond to this need? Soon I think.
So that’s it folks. The next decade of cycling. And who knows, we might see something completely new show up and blow us all away. I for one cant wait to see what that might be.
Fat Tire, steel, mustache bar equipped, internal gear, 24mm inverted fork hartail touring, super-bikes anyone?
(http://forums.mtbr.com/member.php?u=236588)
